The UK's post-Brexit dream of independence

Government efforts to build resilient supply chains is met with scepticism

Nigel Hudson stands in the middle of a grass-covered plot at the edge of Saltend Chemicals Park in East Yorkshire. Around him, the greenfield site bordered by metal mesh fencing looks more yellow than lush. It is mid August 2022, towards the end of the joint hottest summer in England on record, a reminder of the impact of climate change. 

Looking across the empty field before him, the engineering consultant explains the plans for its transformation. “This will be populated with roads, buildings and facilities,” says Mr Hudson. “A really significant build will be commencing here in the early part of next year.” 

This greenfield site in Humber Freeport, one of eight special economic zones (SEZs) across the country, is a metaphor for the UK’s renewed industrial policy and aims to boost supply chain resilience.

It belongs to Pensana, a relatively small listed mining company, which plans to build a facility to refine the rare earth oxides used to create magnets found in offshore wind turbines and electric vehicles (EVs). It will be the third facility of its kind outside China, which dominates global supply of rare earths, with the aim to start production as early as 2024.

Just a few weeks earlier, Kwasi Kwarteng, former UK secretary for business, energy and industrial strategy (BEIS) and the current chancellor, had travelled to Pensana’s site to launch the UK’s first ever critical mineral strategy with great fanfare. It also included an announcement that Pensana will receive funding from the Automotive Transformation Fund, an £850m government programme to electrify the UK’s automotive supply chain.

Pensana's chairman Paul Atherley (left) with former UK business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng (right) at ground-breaking ceremony in July 2022. Credit: Pensana

Pensana's chairman Paul Atherley (left) with former UK business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng (right) at ground-breaking ceremony in July 2022. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Entrance to Saltend Chemicals Park, where Pensana is building its rare earths processing facility.

Entrance to Saltend Chemicals Park, where Pensana is building its rare earths processing facility.

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Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Rendering of Pensana's planned facility at Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: Pensana

Entrance to Saltend Chemicals Park, where Pensana is building its rare earths processing facility.

Entrance to Saltend Chemicals Park, where Pensana is building its rare earths processing facility.

“We need to develop and strengthen our own supply chain to protect our national security into the future,” said Mr Kwarteng in a statement, adding that the critical mineral strategy lays out the plan to bring high value manufacturing back to the UK.

“Our support for Pensana’s new facility in Yorkshire shows we are already putting the strategy’s aims into action to diversify our supply chains away from dominant market players,” added Mr Kwarteng.

The UK is not alone in this endeavour. At a time of renewed economic nationalism and pandemic-related supply disruption, securing timely and cost-effective raw materials and components has become a serious challenge for governments and companies alike. In many cases, this means domestic industries and jobs are vulnerable to market shocks and geopolitical events.

Rising tensions with China, which after decades of targeted policy and investment has become a dominant force in everything from rare earths to battery minerals, has made it paramount for countries the world over to reduce overreliance and protect strategic national assets.

Map showing the world's top producing countries of 18 minerals deemed critical to the UK economy. Credit: BEIS

Map showing the world's top producing countries of 18 minerals deemed critical to the UK economy. Credit: BEIS

Western governments including the US, EU and Canada have all set out to ameliorate the situation by outlining bold strategies and support to boost domestic supplies of critical technologies and materials. By 2040, global demand for the minerals used in EV batteries – including lithium, graphite, cobalt and nickel – is forecast to increase by between 6 and 14 times under stated policies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

While businesses and trade groups welcome the UK government’s long-term ambitions, many complain its strategy lacks detail and offers too little, too late. "We haven't seen enough being done to build resilience in UK supply chains," says Verity Davidge, the director of policy at MakeUK, an association of UK manufacturers. 

Others are asking broader questions about whether it makes business sense to build these supply chains in the UK, amid long-term industrial decline and the impact of its decision to leave the European Union.

Changing tune on China

George Osborne at Shanghai stock exchange in 2015. Credit: Bloomberg

George Osborne at Shanghai stock exchange in 2015. Credit: Bloomberg

The UK government’s more hawkish stance on China could not be further from the tune of a few years ago. In a 2015 speech to the Shanghai stock exchange, former UK chancellor George Osborne called for a “golden decade” of relations between the UK and China: “We need China to power our economy forward,” he said.

This is in stark contrast to today’s China hawkishness. Under the 2021 National Security and Investment Act, the UK has begun to intervene more actively in foreign transactions involving strategic national assets, particularly those proposed by Chinese buyers.

In May 2022, Mr Kwarteng intervened to trigger an official review of the acquisition of the UK’s largest semiconductor producer, Newport Wafer Fab, by Nexperia, a Netherlands-based chipmaker controlled by China’s Wingtech Technology that announced the deal in July 2021. The government has said it will give a final decision on the deal in early October.

A few weeks later, in August 2022, the UK government blocked the sale of Bristol-based chip design software company Pulsic to Hong Kong-based Super Orange HK Holding which was set up in August 2021 by Nanjing Puxin Software, a company ultimately owned by Shanghai Heijan Industrial Software Group. 

The Shanghai firm is backed by China’s National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund – a $50bn state-backed vehicle known as the “Big Fund” which supports China’s semiconductor industry.

Pensana has also changed its tune on China. The company plans to source rare earth magnet metal oxides for its UK facility from a deposit it is developing in Longonjo municipality, near to the central Angolan capital of Huambo.

“We’re going to develop this independent of China,” says Paul Atherley, Pensana’s chairman, who in July 2014 served as head of the British Chamber of Commerce in China. “We’re doing all the mineral processing we can in-country, meaning the product we export out of Angola is incredibly clean with no deleterious elements.”

But in a July 2020 company statement, Pensana announced it had “entered into a heads of agreement” with China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC), a state-owned enterprise.

“We are delighted to enter this heads of agreement with CGWIC,” the same Mr Atherley then commented in the statement. “CGWIC brings to the project a successful track record in major project development and funding from China.” 

Today, Mr Atherley stresses that CGWIC would like to work with Pensana, but they declined: “We have zero involvement with China. A few years ago they made the offer to us. We announced it. We have not progressed it.”

Chinese companies make up nearly 90% of global refining capacity for rare earth elements, according to the IEA, and have made substantial investments to gain direct control of rare earths deposits in the likes of Australia, Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“We need to have a resilient supply chain for these raw materials and the UK can play a huge part in that,” says Mr Atherley. “We can process it independently of China, sustainably and provide an alternative source to China.”

Photo by Laura Ockel on Unsplash

Photo by Laura Ockel on Unsplash

Photo by Alex Irwin-Hunt

Photo by Alex Irwin-Hunt

“We need to have a resilient supply chain for these raw materials and the UK can play a huge part in that. We can process it independently of China, sustainably and provide an alternative source to China.”
Paul Atherley, chairman of Pensana

Dreams of independence from China

Photo by Hanny Naibaho on Unsplash

Photo by Hanny Naibaho on Unsplash

While Pensana’s plans to process Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxides in its Saltend facility are welcomed as strategically important, analysts question the viability of these plans. 

“Total independence from China in the rare earth industry is difficult to achieve if you are looking to produce at scale,” says Max Reid, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie’s battery and raw materials service. 

Other large scale non-Chinese processing facilities operated by Australia’s Lynas and under construction by MP Materials in California had Chinese involvement through either expertise or equipment purchasing.

“It is not impossible to develop Saltend without Chinese involvement, though it certainly isn’t the easy route to take,” says Mr Reid. “Pensana’s plans to undertake all construction and commissioning by 2024 are somewhat ambitious and would not be surprised if there are delays during the process”.

Mr Hudson, the engineering consultant working on the site works for Pensana, told fDi in August 2022 that the company is already getting close to closing the procurement process for some of the longer lead items needed for the facility: “We’re on schedule and we hope to be in production in 2024,” he said.

Aside from the specifics of Pensana's plans to develop a facility independent from China, competition within the rare earths sector continues to be intense. According to cyber security firm Mandiant, the Chinese government has been linked to an online disinformation campaign aimed at undermining the plans of Western companies developing rare earth mineral deposits.

Devil in the detail

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

In an extensive policy paper published in July 2022, the UK government outlined its approach to improve resilience, mitigate risks and collaborate internationally on critical mineral supply chains. A total of 18 minerals – such as cobalt, lithium and silicon – were identified as having “high criticality” for the UK economy. 

The government’s plan is to boost domestic production, develop its skills base, enhance reuse and recycling and support research and development in critical minerals and mining. 

Map of critical mineral capabilities across the UK. Credit: BEIS

Map of critical mineral capabilities across the UK. Credit: BEIS

The BEIS spokesperson says that where the UK has pockets of mineral wealth it will be important to develop them “in a way that works for communities and the environment”. 

“However, it is not possible, or even desirable, to onshore all aspects of critical mineral supply chains,” they added.

Other efforts to bolster the UK’s capabilities include the setting up of an expert committee to provide independent advice to the government as well as a dedicated centre to collect and analyse information on critical minerals.

Kirsty Benham, the co-founder of the Critical Minerals Association (CMA), a platform for industry and government discussion, says that the strategy has brought a lot more attention to critical minerals, but the “devil will be in the detail”.

“One of the biggest hurdles is going to be delivering this at pace,” she says, noting that it took two and half years for the strategy to be published after the formation of the CMA in March 2020. 

Others complain that the current strategy is light on detail and does not outline a clear route to implementation.

“It’s well-intentioned but flawed by not recognising the sheer lack of labour in the UK market and the required level of investment that would need to be provided by the government,” says Steve Morely, the president of the Confederation of British Metalforming, which represents about 200 UK manufacturers.

Christopher Gleadle, the CEO of the Paddy Ashdown Forum, a think tank, is supportive of the government’s ambitions, but thinks they are taking a “fragmented and disconnected” approach.

“This type of policy should have been done a dozen years ago, whilst we were part of the EU,” he says, noting that Brexit has already done a great deal of damage to the UK’s international reputation and trust with other nations. “We’re trying to catch up now,” he adds.

In the following video, Mr Gleadle elaborates on his thoughts about some of the planned mineral extraction projects in the UK:

A crucial element to the strategy is for the UK to work more closely with resource-rich countries such as Australia, Canada and Chile. In June 2022, the UK was among a group of allied nations to join the Minerals Security Partnership, a US proposed initiative to boost investment into critical mineral supply chains.

Jack Richardson, a climate programme manager at the Conservative Environment Network, notes that while the UK will always be a buyer of these raw materials on markets, it is important to develop these relationships and domestic capabilities.

“Industrial policy is back,” he says. “The government clearly cares about bringing industries back and might pay a bit of a premium to have those jobs and economic growth in our old industrial heartland.”

Lithium plans

At the United Downs industrial estate lies another crucial part of the UK’s aim to boost supply chain resilience. Located 10 minutes drive along winding country lanes from the town of Redruth in Cornwall, it symbolises the hope of revitalising once thriving areas facing social deprivation after the closure of local industry.

The industrial estate is home to Cornish Lithium, which has been testing for lithium in both hardrock and in geothermal brines at its Trevalour and United Downs sites, respectively. The company is building a pilot plant for direct lithium extraction (DLE) from geothermal waters at United Downs, for which it has received investment through the government’s Getting Building Fund. 

Several other companies, including British Lithium, are exploring other lithium deposits in Cornwall and aim to develop the UK’s domestic EV battery supply chain.

Jeremy Wrathall, the CEO of Cornish Lithium, thinks the UK has “lost its self-belief” in mineral extraction and domestic production.

“We really need to rediscover what we can find on our own doorstep,” he says, highlighting the “tragedy” that Cornwall no longer has the state as a mining powerhouse. Now, the Ukraine war and increasing difficulties with China, have underlined the importance of making use of these mineral deposits and creating economic opportunities, says Mr Wrathall.

“If you have control over the ultimate raw material, the metal itself, and [you're] not importing it from somewhere else you have got control of your destiny,” he adds.

Cornish Lithium expects to be in commercial production at its hardrock site in Trevalour by 2026 and open a small scale DLE site as early as 2024. UK demand for lithium carbonate equivalent is expected to reach as much as 80,000 tonnes per year by 2030, according to the latest Automotive Transformation Fund figures. 

Allan Pedersen, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says that all sources of lithium will be important, noting that local supply could contribute to assist in emission targets being met.

“But in most countries, there is no guarantee that the product extracted and processed domestically will remain in the country as trade agreements might prevent this type of protectionism,” he explains.

Mr Wrathall says that Cornish Lithium is “ambivalent” as to whether it will export its lithium if it is produced cost competitively.

“We can export it if there’s no customers here, but it is primarily driven by generating something for the UK,” he says, underlining the need for the UK to have the whole supply chain for EV batteries to support ongoing projects.

Levelling up

Photo of Siemens Gamesa's offshore wind turbine factory in Humber Freeport near to Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: ABP/David Lee

Photo of Siemens Gamesa's offshore wind turbine factory in Humber Freeport near to Saltend Chemicals Park. Credit: ABP/David Lee

Several major green projects, including Britishvolt’s planned lithium-ion battery gigafactory in Northumberland, also align with the government’s levelling up agenda. It aims to promote investment and job creation in more deprived areas of the country, which have seen their industries decline over many decades.

Despite these efforts, fDi Markets data indicates that the UK has attracted far less greenfield foreign investment in the battery supply chain than its European peers.

Businesses welcome the government's attempts to bring back manufacturing and supply chains to the UK. But there remains much to be done, according to Verity Davidge of MakeUK.

“Our members have been vocal on the need for more government support on supply chain resilience and reshoring. If manufacturers are going to actually move production back to the UK, there needs to be more support, not just an intention to do so," she says.

Back in Saltend Chemicals Park, the poster site of the government’s resilience strategy, sits an undeveloped plot of land battered by the Yorkshire wind. The long-term aim of producing the materials crucial to the magnets in the turbines across Hornsea 2, the UK’s largest offshore wind farm located just off the coast, is admirable. But the ultimate dream of the resilience this may bring remains many years away.